Something has changed with the arrival of COVID in the modern world, and professional (as well as amateur and other varieties) betting has changed in just a few weeks. The industry reacted more slowly than events unfolded, but the outcome was predictable: traditional sports betting no longer exists in its familiar form. The Tokyo Olympics and Euro 2020 have been postponed for a year, the NBA season is on hold, tennis is frozen until June (according to optimistic and very light forecasts), and from regular football, only the Belarusian championship and possibly the start of the Swedish championship remain. The extent to which sports betting will be deformed by the influence of the coronavirus depends on this start, by the way. But no matter how gloomy the news and forecasts are, there’s a positive aspect: betting itself won’t die. And the fact that it has changed and is already changing is an undeniable fact. It costs bookmakers a pretty penny, but for not-too-specialized players (let alone enthusiasts), things aren’t so bad at all!
How the Industry Was Tempered
Praise to the management of bookmakers worldwide – they responded quickly to events. Tennis was officially canceled in March, initially until around April 13, but virtually all recent tennis matches in this world were offered live by 90% of bookmakers, and interestingly, they didn’t close betting – as long as people were placing wagers. To be fair, among those matches, there were more than a few that seemed suspicious in their progression. Of course, bookmakers did this not for any noble reasons, but simply to prevent a mass outflow of funds from accounts. There’s no official information, but logically speaking, bookies simply don’t have the money to pay out not just winnings, but even deposits to everyone. In other words, no one would risk it, and real accounts would probably get paid, but the industry as a whole would face complete and utter collapse. But it didn’t happen. Football was stopped later than tennis, and very gradually – that’s undoubtedly bad for the world at large, but it partially saved sports betting. And plain betting is alive without it! No one’s canceling esports tournaments! In fact, this area has suddenly become the most promising not just for enthusiasts, but for pros too. You have to make money somehow, right? Why not with esports!
Meanwhile, Business Insider has published an article about the real (as they see it) outlook for professional and sports betting. According to that article, bookmakers are innovating their operations and trying to control costs only. Frankly speaking, this view is totally pessimistic. Belarus, Nicaragua, and some other soccer leagues are still running – how can we say betting is dead? Even sports betting is alive! But not in its usual form, of course. Well, panic isn’t the way for bettors worldwide – the industry is working. Shaken, but not stopped.
Let Socialism Live or Would You Please Start It!
So, the industry itself is clear. No one’s perished. Betting is alive. Altered, reshaped, barely breathing, but alive for sure. Sports betting is too, but it needs separate analysis. Because a simple scenario is coming: since the Belarusian football championship is even being offered by Pinnacle (and widely so!), and they’ll soon start listing props for goal scorers in Nicaragua U-20, the number of fixed matches will obviously increase. And rapidly. When there’s nothing to bet on, it’s easy to figure out, but it’s hard to resist those who want to profit from less-than-honest sports. And obviously, insiders and fixers will easily find ways to arrange desired results in the football leagues currently playing. The Tajikistan Cup! Of course, no one in Tajikistan would refuse to rig the necessary score on the board, or even simpler – things like the number of goals conceded and other unsavory items from the betting lines. Pinnacle, of course, won’t suffer – they won’t let much get through and will quickly adjust lines. But the problem is real. If Montecristo could pull off a blatant dog on an ITF event and make it work (and even make it look good), then professional fixers won’t miss their chance for profit – the temptation is too great. And for regular bettors who work with information, not insiders (or does anyone still think public insiders exist?), this all spells trouble: lines will be crushed, and you can always outplay a fix (everyone saw those heavy bets on tennis going from 8 to 1.8 with weird final scores, right?). So, for professional sports betting not to completely crash in this coronapocalypse, it’s good if at least one more league starts. For example, it’s expected that in the country of triumphant socialism (Sweden), the football season will still begin. At least, preseason is in full swing there with friendly matches, which inspires some optimism.
If someone thinks professional sports is totally clean – here’s bad news for idealists. Even Wikipedia has a page listing fixed sports incidents. And that list includes 15 different sports (NASCAR and Formula 1 are on it – can you imagine?). Of course, real fixes don’t make that list, as it’s hard to monitor all leagues, but some tennis, snooker, and soccer incidents are public. So, when we have 3-4 soccer leagues playing in this corona world – should we expect clean sports? That’s rhetorical, isn’t it?
Your Expectations – Not Just Your Problems, If the World Has a Coronapocalypse
Coronapocalypse – a pessimistic but truthful name for what’s happening on our mortal planet. The world is changing rapidly under the influence of COVID-19, but since professional bettors (due to their professional distortions) are primarily interested in sports, not the world at large, we’ll talk about that. Enthusiasts who just like to place bets are essentially interested in the same thing. And, since the gambling industry definitely hasn’t died, bettors’ expectations have risen: they want real sports! Not just esports. Esports is a last resort, but for the soul, some football would be nice. As all other sports are stopped for a very long time, and the Rio Olympics (which were poorly managed) risk being the last modern ones – too many associations have refused to send delegations to Tokyo, even in 2021 instead of 2020. The world is seriously considering ending the Premier League season (yes!). On closed bases, after virus tests, but with TV and all the joys for bettors. Of course, that’s too optimistic – thinking any official would go for that, even for the eternal idea that ‘sport unites’ – but the start of the championship in the country of triumphant socialism is a possible scenario. It’s been postponed, of course, but not definitively canceled. So, expectations are still geared toward optimistic scenarios! We’ll have time to discuss pessimistic and realistic ones (for both sports and plain betting) in the second part of the article.
We Are in Limbo, But Not Dead or Optimism Instead of the First Postscript
Optimism can’t exist in a vacuum, of course. And since bettors are currently, if not in a dead end, then definitely in limbo, why not bolster it with a bet? The virus is the virus, but outrights haven’t been canceled. Well, more precisely, what bookmakers are offering as substitutes for outrights. Analyzing buckwheat prices is entertaining too, and maybe we’ll have to in the future, but for now, we can focus on more down-to-earth things. No one knows if a certain league will start – that’s just guesswork, easier to go straight to roulette or cards. But news from football clubs keeps coming, so there’s plenty to analyze. For example, at Chelsea, several player contracts are frozen due to the pandemic until the Premier League officially resumes. So, those whose contracts are ending could easily leave the club, including Willian. And there were already rumors about Willian leaving without the coronapocalypse. The question is, who needs him with his salary demands? And, thinking about it, probably only Tottenham – they can pay for players like Moura, Kane wants to leave, and no one knows what’s up with Son half the days. Alli isn’t a pure forward, so if Willian comes cheap, the bet «Willian’s next club after the summer transfer window – Tottenham» at 4.5 has a shot. Those craving easy money could hedge with the same bet, but for Arsenal, at 6. Overall, that’s not a bad way to invest 1.5 units, but it would be funny if Willian wants to go to Manchester United. Anyway, that’s just speculation, and during the virus, it’s better to tackle as many practical tasks as possible.
So, stay optimistic and even place some bets 🙂
