On February 3, at the Blast Premier Spring Groups tournament, matches in the BO-3 format will begin. After the draw, six teams will advance to the final stage of the tournament, while the others will play in the Blast Showdown. The first to enter the game are the teams that performed poorly in their groups. Liquid secured one win in Group C, while Natus Vincere failed to win any games in Group B.
Natus Vincere
The world’s top-ranked team, the best in 2021 with the world’s best player, ended up in the easiest group at the tournament with MiBR, Astralis, and OG. Alexander Kostylev promised to dominate the Brazilians, but they lost to them 12-16 on Dust2. After the unexpected defeat, everyone thought Natus Vincere would regroup, but they lost their second match too. This time, Astralis, led by blameF, handled the team on ‘Mirage’ – 19-17. The team finished in a conditional last place. Both games were in BO-1 format.
Team Liquid
The Americans had several roster changes: Stewie2k, Fallen, and Grim left, replaced by oSee, shox, and nitr0. Notably, ‘nitr0’ had been playing Valorant for about a year and a half before this. Unfortunately, the Americans were placed in the toughest group with a strengthened FaZe Clan and updated Vitality, who were already quite formidable. The clear underdogs were only Evil Geniuses. EG refreshed their lineup with former Cloud9 players but still looked weaker than the rest. All three matches went to overtime. You can check the results on the image below.
Statistics and Prediction
Natus Vincere’s win rate over the last three months is 81%, while Liquid’s is much lower at just 37%. Last year, the teams faced off three times. The Americans took two wins, and Na’Vi got one. Bookmakers see Natus Vincere as a strong favorite, offering odds of 1.14 for their victory. For Liquid’s win, the odds are around 5. Even though Liquid isn’t the easiest opponent for ‘Born to Win,’ these odds are reasonable. The Americans have a new lineup that’s only played together in two games, while Natus Vincere has a well-established core that won a Major. Plus, if things don’t go their way, the team will have a chance to bounce back, which they didn’t in the BO-1 matches.
Natus Vincere clearly underestimated their opponents, made many costly mistakes, and couldn’t close out situations when they had the upper hand. Liquid’s Naf is in great form, EliGe is keeping up, oSee is playing solidly overall, while shox and nitr0 need time to adapt. Liquid had more issues on the defensive side.
Liquid performed well against strong teams, while Na’Vi lost to the 56th-ranked team in the world and an inconsistent Astralis. I think 2.57 is a solid odds value to take a chance on Liquid winning one map. Of course, Natus Vincere should win their map.
