Novak Djokovic was ultimately deported from Australia, but that doesn’t stop the AO 2022 from starting!
Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Tomas Machac
By smartly managing his schedule throughout the season, Argentine Juan Manuel Cerundolo broke into the top-100 in 2021, settling at the 80th spot in the rankings. Cerundolo has an ATP title in Cordoba, along with 2 finals and 3 challenger titles to his name. Naturally, all of them were on clay, but modern tennis history has plenty of shining examples where clay specialists performed well on fast surfaces after climbing the rankings (Marco Cecchinato sends his regards). Playing 81 matches last season and winning 53 of them, the 20-year-old Cerundolo showed impressive efficiency and focus on results—few in the current tour can boast that. Now, the Argentine makes his main draw debut at the Australian Open, facing resistance from qualifier Tomas Machac of the Czech Republic. Surprisingly, the Czech has gone undefeated this season (8/0) and even won a challenger title. However, such an active start is bound to lead to a dip in form, which could come right in the first round as his qualification wasn’t easy. Bookmakers suggest betting on Cerundolo at 5.00, and this match will be worth watching and wagering on to see how the young Argentine adapts to a surface that’s challenging for him.
Skatov — Gombos
When looking at a match between two qualifiers, it’s often tempting to search for head-to-heads between recent opponents. But that’s a dead end. It’s wiser to analyze how each player performed in qualifying, who had tougher opponents, and how many sets each one played before entering the main draw. Take Timofey Skatov and Norbert Gombos as an example—you can easily see who has a better chance of grabbing that hypothetical second-round spot at a Slam. Skatov breezed through qualifying with three straight 2:0 wins, while Gombos dropped a set to each of his opponents. Among Gombos’ foes were the underperforming Kuznetsov and the solid but clay-based Renzo Olivo. Meanwhile, Skatov faced the gritty Hugo Gaston, Gastao Elias, and Australian talent Sweeney. Interestingly, Skatov has a 10/9 record on hard courts in his career, but Gombos’ stats from last season on outdoor hard courts are dismal at 0/9. Gombos’ inconsistent play couldn’t handle players like Malek Jaziri and Ramkumar Ramanathan, and there’s no sign he’s in form this season. Pinnacle offers Skatov at 2.48, which is a solid pick.
Carballes Baena — Berankis
The relentless draw has once again paired Roberto Carballes Baena and Ricardas Berankis on the Melbourne courts, just one full tennis season later. Last time, it ended 3:0 in favor of the Lithuanian, but this time the dynamics have shifted. With 74 matches (and 43 wins) in 2021, the Spaniard is not just a favorite against this familiar foe (3 head-to-heads), but a clear contender for victory. As is often the case with Roberto, he started the year on a shaky note with only one win in four matches, but he’s gained some match practice. Carballes Baena’s individual skills should be enough against Berankis. Digging deeper, Berankis only has a strong serve in his arsenal, and based on the qualifying matches, the Melbourne courts aren’t super fast this year. Baena will mix things up, trying to lure his opponent into long rallies, and if he succeeds, the match will be entertaining and offer betting opportunities. 2.87 on the Spaniard is a reliable choice.
Musetti — De Minaur
At just 19, Lorenzo Musetti has already made a name for himself in tennis with a couple of major upsets, an elegant playing style, and taking two sets off Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros. The Italian plays on all surfaces (67 matches last season) and is known for giving his all against top players. The AO 2022 draw has given Musetti a strong and somewhat predictable opponent in Alex de Minaur, who has reached the third round in Melbourne for two straight years, only to face top seeds (or Fabio Fognini). Bookmakers are impressed by the Australian’s solid performance at the ATP Cup, where he handled Matteo Berrettini and beat Hugo Humbert. But experience and past Slam stats suggest that the main draw plays differently than qualifiers. Musetti is a tricky opponent with his unique backhand and spin-heavy shots. It’s far from certain that de Minaur will have an easy time against the Italian: Musetti at 6.00 is a must-bet.
