On December 13, the first semifinal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup will take place: the Argentine national team will battle for a chance to reach the final of the tournament against the Croatian national team. The starting whistle will sound at 22:00 Moscow time.
Pre-match breakdown
The Argentine national team was initially seen as one of the favorites. After all, they have Messi, which makes any team a contender in any tournament. Overall, the Argentine squad is quite experienced, so for many players, this might be their last shot at a trophy. That includes Lionel Messi himself. It’s unlikely he’ll play in the next World Cup at age 39. Despite the high expectations for Argentina, they had a disastrous start, delivering what was arguably the biggest upset of the tournament. We’re talking about that fateful group stage opener against Saudi Arabia (1:2), where some bookmakers offered odds of 30+ for the Saudis. But this is still Argentina, a team that regrouped and made it to the semifinals. Interestingly, the EA Sports simulation predicted Argentina as the eventual winner, and that simulation has been spot-on in 2018, 2014, and 2010.
As for Croatia, their path has been even tougher and more grueling. Grueling, especially for fans, because the ‘chess masters’ are considered one of the most boring teams in the tournament by many. In the group stage, they drew 0:0 twice, in the round of 16 they ended regulation time at 1:1 in a dull match, and in the quarterfinals, it was another 0:0 against Brazil. They play solidly, defensively, spending most of the game in their own half. This approach yields results but doesn’t make for exciting viewing. Before the tournament, Croatia wasn’t taken too seriously, even though they’re the runners-up from the last World Cup in Russia. Yet, here they are, grinding their way to the semifinals.
Argentina
The Argentine team had a terrible start at the World Cup, losing 1:2 to Saudi Arabia. That was probably the loudest sensation of the tournament and will likely remain so. But the team bounced back, securing two 2:0 victories over Mexico and Poland. Even a missed penalty by Lionel Messi didn’t stop them from beating Poland.
In the round of 16, Argentina faced a mid-tier Australia. The South American side scored twice and controlled the game, but conceded late, making many fans nervous. Despite their overall dominance, the win felt shaky, with a tense finish.
In the quarterfinals, the Netherlands stood in Argentina’s way, and it looked like they might breeze through. True to form, Argentina scored twice and seemed comfortable. But then, they conceded in stoppage time, with 10 added minutes in the second half, and on the 90+11th minute, the Netherlands equalized. Yes, Argentina looked better, attacked more dynamically, and dominated the two extra periods, but it ended 2:2, leading to a penalty shootout. The goalkeeper was outstanding, securing their spot in the semifinals.
Odds for Argentina to win over Croatia are 1.87.
Overall, Argentina is performing solidly. The team has scored two goals in four out of five matches, which is respectable. The pattern is clear, but they have issues in the closing stages. This could be due to complacency or the high average age of the players. Whether it’s fatigue or carelessness, the key point is that the problem exists.
Croatia
Grinding it out, there’s no other way to put it… Their first match was a dull 0:0 draw with Morocco. Questions arose about their playoff chances, especially with Belgium up next in the final group game. In the second match, they delivered a solid and lively 4:1 win over Canada, which is pretty much their only bright spot. In the end, their fate was decided in the third game against Belgium—a tedious match ending in another 0:0, but it was enough to advance.
In the round of 16, Japan was their opponent. The first half ended goalless for Croatia, but Japan scored before halftime. Early in the second half, Perisic equalized, and it was off to penalties, where luck smiled on the ‘checkered ones’ again.
The quarterfinal against Brazil followed a very similar script. Everyone expected Brazil to lift the trophy, but Croatia held firm. The 90 minutes ended without a goal… again… It played out like the Japan match, only this time Croatia conceded in the first extra period but quickly leveled the score. Another penalty shootout, another win.
Odds for Croatia to win over Argentina are 4.7.
As a football fan, you’d want to send Croatia home ages ago. But for keeping the intrigue alive, they’re a fascinating team. Sure, they put on boring matches, but the results are impressive for a squad that’s not star-studded. Can they withstand Argentina’s pressure, hang on, and force penalties to sneak into the final? It’s a tough question. We’ll see.
Match prediction
It’s tough to analyze any Croatia match in terms of outcomes right now. Will they hold up or not? It’s unclear. But the scenario is straightforward: Argentina will push to score, ideally early, while Croatia will try to keep possession, make occasional forays forward, and wait for those coveted penalties.
Given this, betting on under seems appealing, but there’s a twist: if Croatia concedes, they always go all out to score and do it quickly. It’s almost magical, but it’s true. The big question is whether Argentina can net an early goal, or even better, two, to really trouble Croatia?
There’s a strong feeling that Argentina will score at least once. They’re too good a team, with Messi brilliantly setting up chances, and they earn penalties often. So, we’re locking in at least one goal. Once that happens, Croatia will open up, but they might pay the price. Add in the fact that Argentina tends to concede in the final 20 minutes, and we’re looking at at least two goals. So, we’ll go with over 2 goals (with a push if exactly two are scored).
Prediction: Over 2 total goals at odds of 1.90.
