US Open winner or Melbourne’s favorite? The second round of the Australian Open is full of exciting matches!
Medvedev vs. Kyrgios
Nick Kyrgios’s matches in Australia are always thrilling: fireworks, crowd support, and cheers of approval. Fans in Melbourne especially love him, remembering his quarterfinal in 2015 (a tough battle against Murray), his intense five-set matches, and last season when the Australian nearly upset Dominic Thiem in the third round (before Thiem’s injury). The 2022 Australian Open draw set up an early surprise matchup that’s sure to excite tennis fans: Kyrgios faces Medvedev; it’s interesting to note that these players have met before in their careers, including on outdoor hard courts. They’ve played twice… and both times, the enfant terrible came out on top, winning not only on hard in the Washington final (with two tiebreaks) but also on clay. Everyone knows Nick’s disdain for clay courts—he once suggested on Twitter that Roland Garros should be canceled (I disapprove)! With this head-to-head background, Medvedev will struggle not just with the gameplay but also the pre-match pressure, even though he’s entering as the winner of the most recent hard-court Grand Slam. In the first round of the Australian Open, neither player dropped a set to their opponents, and in this personal showdown, we could see a battle going to five sets. Medvedev had a tougher first-round opponent (Laaksonen), but Kyrgios easily handled Liam Broady, who had just come through qualifying. Kyrgios knows how to play against Daniil, and it’s unclear why bookmakers are offering overly high odds on the Australian: he’s capable of taking a set and even winning at 6.46
Cilic vs. Gombos
Marin Cilic is traditionally strong in comebacks but equally weak in preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season. In 2022, the Croatian has a 5-2 record, but even his wins aren’t convincing: he makes too many errors. In the first round, he faced Ecuadorian Emilio Gomez and only allowed him six games, which was a solid performance for Cilic. In his other matches, though, the unforced errors in long rallies exceeded what’s acceptable for a former top player. Plus, Gomez is hard to gauge as a form indicator since he was tired after a grueling qualifying final against Fabbiano. But Norbert Gombos will be a real test for Marin, as the Slovak unexpectedly advanced past the first round of the Australian Open by beating Timofey Skatov in a tough match. Before facing the Kazakh, there were doubts about Gombos’s fatigue after qualifying (three three-set matches), but his strong play dispelled those concerns. It’s worth recalling that Gombos and Cilic have met before in a Grand Slam, on hard courts in New York, where the match was a rollercoaster and Gombos managed to win a set. He’ll likely do the same in Melbourne, and moreover, Gombos could even fight for the win, with bookmakers offering a generous 8.33
O’Connell vs. Schwartzman
When the second round of a Grand Slam arrives, you can always expect an upset from one of the dark horses. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman fits perfectly as a potential upset creator (or victim): he’ll face an opponent who’s not well-known to the wider tennis public. The Argentine has a history of such surprises; at the 2021 Davis Cup on home soil, Diego lost a match where his opponent had odds of 101 (the opponent was a Belarusian with no ITF-level experience). Heading into round two, Schwartzman has a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas this season, but it’s well-known that the Argentine gets more motivated against top players than those below his level. As for O’Connell, who blanked Hugo Gaston in the first round, the Australian makes the most of his chances to shine at Grand Slams: last season, he beat Struff in Melbourne, went five sets with Tommy Paul at the French Open, and had a thriller against Monfils at Wimbledon. Naturally, he’ll be hyper-focused playing in his home city of Melbourne, and even out-of-form players like Philipp Kohlschreiber have capitalized on Schwartzman’s errors, so it’s unclear why O’Connell is at 4.93
Rinderknech vs. Evans
Arthur Rinderknech has climbed a long way up the rankings to top-50 (currently 48th) and shows no signs of stopping. At least, he started the 2022 season strongly: beating McDonald, Khachanov, and Moutet, and only losing in the Adelaide final to Thanasi Kokkinakis in three sets. In the Australian Open opener, Rinderknech drew the always-tricky Alexei Popyrin, whom he beat 3-2, and it’s doubtful he’ll stall after such an impressive match. Facing him will be Daniel Evans, who also started the season well and had a successful ATP Cup with three wins, which influenced the bookmakers’ odds. Evans beat players whose styles are very different from Rinderknech’s—Isner, Cressy, Struff, and (surprisingly) Shapovalov. As the 24th-ranked player, Evans is the conditional favorite, but not as clear-cut as the bookies suggest. Rinderknech has experience in five-setters and has ways to surprise the Brit in rallies, so it’s worth checking Rinderknech at 3.38
