On January 23, at the Honda Center in Anaheim, the milestone UFC 270 event will take place, headlined by Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane. In the co-main event, the fight for the flyweight world championship between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo will occur. The fighters have met twice in the octagon before. We’ve tried to determine who will take the championship belt.
Brandon Moreno
The current flyweight champion began his career in 2011. He was a WFF champion and won a title in Legacy FC. He first appeared in the UFC in 2016, where after a strong start, he faced difficulties in fights against Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja. However, he then delivered a powerful series of bouts, including against Askar Askarov, ranked number 2 in the world. In his first fight against Figueiredo, Moreno failed to win the belt, as the bout ended in a draw. In the rematch, he defeated his opponent in the third round and claimed the title. For those two fights, he earned bonuses totaling $100,000.
Deiveson Figueiredo
The former champion started his career in 2012. Initially, he competed in smaller Brazilian promotions. In 2017, the undefeated fighter was signed by the UFC. In the American organization, he achieved a record of 6-1, losing only to Jussier Formiga, and earned a shot at the vacant title against Joseph Benavidez. Later, the fight was no longer for the title because Deiveson missed weight. On his second attempt, he became champion by defeating the same Benavidez. He defended his title against Alex Perez, and then came the well-known fights against Moreno. Originally, the third fight was scheduled for December 2021 but was postponed.
Statistics and Prediction
Brandon Moreno is 5 cm taller than his opponent, and his reach is 5 cm longer. Statistically, both land a similar number of significant strikes per minute, but Figueiredo is much more accurate—56% compared to 39%. In defense, Moreno has the edge with 58% of strikes blocked against 49%. Their grappling stats are roughly equal.
In the first fight, Figueiredo appeared physically stronger, landing powerful strikes to the head and body. The Brazilian was more precise and inflicted significant damage on his opponent. However, he had a point deducted for an illegal strike to the groin. Moreno pressed against the cage but countered effectively, executed takedowns, and controlled his opponent more. One judge even scored the fight for him.
In the second fight, Figueiredo wasn’t himself, affected by a grueling weight cut. The Brazilian lost muscle mass and no longer looked stronger than his opponent. His counterattacking strategy fell apart, and he was outpaced.
The fight’s outcome and duration largely depend on Deiveson Figueiredo’s physical condition. If he enters in his usual form, it will be tough for Brandon Moreno. However, I believe the fight won’t go to the judges’ decision. Figueiredo’s weight cut might play a role again. If not, the damage both fighters sustained in previous bouts could make a difference. Prediction: Total rounds under (4.5), meaning the fifth round might start, but it won’t go to the judges’ decision.
