December 14 will host the final semifinal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. One of the main favorites, France, will face the tournament’s dark horse, the Moroccan national team. The match kicks off at 22:00 Moscow time. And as always, when it involves the top favorite and the biggest disruptor, anything can happen. Let’s analyze the upcoming match and make the most accurate prediction possible.
Pre-match setups
France is the reigning world champion, so it’s inherently one of the main favorites of the tournament. Reaching the dream has become even easier thanks to the Croatian team, which knocked out Brazil in the knockout round. For a long time, the Brazilians were seen as the favorites, but not anymore; now, all the chances are with France. Looking at the team objectively, Mbappé and company are a solid squad capable of beating any opponent. To date, the French have only one loss, in their group stage match against Tunisia. Notably, they had already secured their spot in the knockout rounds and fielded a backup lineup. Even the backups played decently but still lost. In the playoffs, the only tough match was the last one, where they barely beat England. That was arguably one of France’s weakest performances in the tournament. Have they run out of steam? Were they just unprepared? Is it a fluke or a trend? It’s hard to say right now.
As for Morocco, the team will return home as heroes no matter how the semifinal—and potential final or third-place match—ends. That’s because African teams haven’t reached the World Cup semifinals in a very long time. Actually, never. Yes, the Moroccans are the first and have etched their name in history forever. Opinions about them vary: some see them as geniuses worthy of praise, others as killers of the game’s spectacle. Yes, Morocco prefers a solid defense, but oh, how brilliantly they counterattack. Quickly, sharply, with exactly the right number of players. The coaching change before the final stage clearly benefited the team. At the very least, bringing back Ziyech was a crucial move. He’s played a big role in their success, though not everyone agrees.
France
So, what do we know about this team? It’s a mix of experience and youth. There are young, bold players, and veterans like Griezmann and Giroud, who have truly shone in Qatar. The first leads the tournament in assists for scoring opportunities, and the second broke the legendary Thierry Henry’s record for goals with the French national team. Overall, it’s a powerhouse squad, no doubt about it.
The team resolved their group stage exit with the first two matches, beating Australia (4:1) and Denmark (2:1). Against Denmark, the winning goal came as late as the 86th minute, which is pretty late, but the victory was secured. You can’t say they cruised past Poland either. Yes, they won 3:1, but up until the 74th minute, they only led by one goal. And based on the play, you couldn’t say the French were head and shoulders above their opponents.
This point was reinforced in their next match against England, which France won 2:1. Again, you could argue that England’s only goal came from a penalty, and we all remember the second penalty that Harry Kane sent sky-high. Yes, England didn’t score from open play, but let’s be honest—the English deserved to advance to the semifinals more. The French looked dismal at times, largely because their wing attackers weren’t working hard enough in defense. Meanwhile, England controlled the ball and created some good chances. Overtime wasn’t far off when Rashford took a free kick from about 20 meters in stoppage time. In short, France looked poor but moved on.
The takeaways from all this are straightforward: France has conceded in every match of the tournament and isn’t playing like champions. This isn’t the same France we saw dominating en route to the final against Croatia. No, this is a different France, struggling to scrape through the rounds. Ahead of them is a tough Moroccan side, which will be hard to crack.
Morocco
Morocco is undoubtedly the biggest surprise of the World Cup. Let’s be real—who expected the team to reach the semifinals? Heck, how many thought they’d even make it out of the group with Croatia and Belgium? After all, those two were semifinalists from the last World Cup in Russia…
The Moroccans’ tournament journey started with a match against Croatia, ending in the familiar Croatian shutout and a first point. Next came Belgium, with a surprisingly convincing 2:0 win. For dessert, they devoured Canada (2:1) and topped their group. Topped it… from a group with two semifinalists from the previous tournament…
People started talking about the team, but ahead was Spain in the round of 16. Yes, Spain hadn’t been firing on all cylinders in their group matches, but everyone remembered their thrashing of Costa Rica (7:0), and there were fears they’d dominate against second-tier teams. But Morocco held firm, playing 120 minutes to a 0:0 draw and winning on penalties. Interestingly, Spain only managed one shot on target in those 120 minutes.
By the quarterfinals, people were taking Morocco seriously, but they were still seen as underdogs against Portugal. Ronaldo started on the bench and watched as Morocco took the lead. Yes, the football legend came on in the second half, but he only managed a shot into the near corner and an unconvincing free kick. In the end, Morocco comfortably saw out the win. At least, that’s how it appeared.
The team’s style is clear: play a solid defense and hit on the counter. Nothing revolutionary, but how they do it… Incredibly fast, with precise passes, and every player running exactly where they need to. It’s masterful. And what’s even more impressive—think about this—they’ve only conceded one goal throughout the tournament, despite facing Croatia, Belgium, Spain, and Portugal… That single goal came from Canada. I bet the Canadian players are hoping Morocco keeps winning clean sheets, so they can proudly say: ‘Only we scored against the world champions.’ But there are still two matches to go.
Prediction for the match
Honestly, I’d love to see Morocco in the final. It’s that classic Cinderella story, from rags to riches and all that. But let’s be realistic—the team is going into the match as underdogs again. Yes, the bookmakers confirm it with odds around 8. However, backing France at 1.5 in regular time would be outright foolish.
What do we have? France doesn’t always track back quickly enough—that’s a plus for Morocco. France has been underwhelming in their recent matches, even if they’re scoring 2-3 goals. It’s unlikely they’ll rack up that many against the disciplined Moroccans. Betting on France’s individual total against a team that’s only conceded once in five matches? That’s nonsense too…
I have a feeling Morocco’s style will be a nightmare for France. Yes, they’ll let them have the ball, but we all know positional attacks aren’t France’s strong suit. They’d prefer to use Mbappé and Dembélé’s speed… But the runners will find it cramped. Plus, we’re reminded of Morocco’s fantastic counterattacks and France’s reluctance to defend… In general, it might not be a win, but Morocco will put up a fight and cause problems.
Prediction: Handicap on Morocco (+1) with odds of 1.95.
