On January 23, the next numbered UFC 270 tournament will take place, full of interesting matchups. The main event of the card will be the fight for the heavyweight championship title between Francis Ngannou and Cyril Gane. We have prepared a prediction for the fight.
Francis Ngannou
For the 35-year-old Frenchman, this will be his first title defense since he took the belt from Stipe Miocic in March. Ngannou was supposed to defend his title earlier in 2021 but suffered an injury. In the fight for the interim belt, Cyril Gane defeated Derek Lewis and now aims to become the undisputed champion. Before facing Gane, Francis had a falling out with his former coach Fernando Lopes. Ngannou’s contract with UFC expires right after this fight. The Frenchman has mentioned a potential move to boxing and a bout with Fury, but the chances of that happening are slim. Ngannou’s professional record: 16-3.
Cyril Gane
The Frenchman debuted in professional MMA in 2018 and signed with UFC just a year later. In the American promotion, Gane defeated Rafael Pessoa, Don’Tale Mayes, Junior Dos Santos, Tanner Boser, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Alexander Volkov, earning him a spot as a title contender. Derek Lewis was also on a winning streak, having beaten Ngannou and vying for the belt. In August, Gane handled Lewis with relative ease. Professional record: 10-0. He has two «Performance of the Night» awards.
Statistics and Prediction
As usual, we’ll start with the physical stats. The fighters are the same height, but Ngannou has a 5 cm longer reach. Statistically, Gane lands twice as many significant strikes per minute. Gane focuses on accumulating points, attacking with combinations. Ngannou prefers to wait for the right moment to deliver his devastating strike. Gane also has the edge in defense, blocking 62% of strikes compared to 45% for Francis. Both have strong takedown defense.
It’s no secret that Francis Ngannou has a knockout punch. Gane himself noted that his opponent is the most powerful and strongest he’s ever sparred with. In his first fight against Miocic, Ngannou tried to finish him quickly, swinging wildly in hopes of catching the Croatian, only to walk into counters and takedowns. In his last bout, he fought more conservatively. Ngannou has clearly worked on his boxing and combinations, improved his ground game, and conserved energy. That was enough to become champion.
Cyril Gane is in no way inferior to his opponent in athleticism. His build allows him to work at a distance and avoid dangerous exchanges. Gane always starts cautiously, mainly using his jab, and later adds combinations and kicks.
Gane has already been tested against technical strikers like Rozenstruik and Volkov, and he neutralized the power of Derek Lewis. No matter how much Ngannou has improved his striking technique, he won’t outpoint Gane. Plus, his endurance remains the same. The early rounds might be even, but in the later ones, Gane should pull ahead.
