The 2023 Australian Open is kicking off, and it’s a delight to break down the first-round draw. Who will pull off a surprise, who will disappoint? Who should we watch? Bookmakers, as always, have made a few errors and are favoring the wrong player in some matchups!
Otte — Shan
Oscar Otte kicked off the season at the United Cup and managed just one win. It might seem like no big deal, but with a 1-2 record and little match practice, he won’t achieve much in the opening round of AO 2023. Especially since he’s facing Shan, a young talent who’s not only earned his spot in the main draw through a tough qualifying round but has also built up form. It might appear that beating players like Marozsan, Verdasco, and Pirosh isn’t a strong indicator, but keep in mind: Otte lacks that kind of match practice. Plus, the Australian Open has been a tough Slam for Oscar, with five appearances yielding just one main draw entry when he qualified by ranking—and he didn’t get through qualifiers otherwise. Last season, he got lucky in the first round against an unpolished Tseng. This time, it’s different. Shan is hungry for wins and can cause problems beyond his serve. Otte might hold serve without issues for the first couple of sets, but endurance will take over, and the young Chinese player has the edge there. In 2022, Shang tested himself on challengers, posting a solid 40-24 record (17-8 on hard courts), and he’s in a great spot to claim his first main tour win. Otte will fight hard, and it won’t be an easy match, but Shan at 2.8 is an excellent pick for Round 1 of AO 2023.
Echeverri — Barrer
Thomas Martin Echeverri has broken into the ATP top-100 and settled comfortably at No. 80. This lets him qualify for Grand Slam main draws and fill gaps in his ranking with familiar challengers. The Argentine player even manages to compete in ATP 250 events and snag some wins, regardless of the surface. For instance, in 2022, he beat Aslan Karatsev indoors, and indoor courts aren’t his strongest suit. Though he’s seen as a pure clay courter, at just 23, he has plenty of time to broaden his game, which he’s actively doing. For example, he trained with his national team for the United Cup and performed well on hard courts, then dominated the Adelaide 2 qualifiers without dropping a set. On top of that, Echeverri has a solid serve, helping him take down less formidable opponents. It’s not that Gregoire Barrer is weak, but the Frenchman is known for his high number of unforced errors from match to match. Barrer once reached the second round of the Australian Open, but that shouldn’t be overstated—his opponent was a futures-level player like Mohammed Safwat. Overall, Barrer plays on outdoor hard courts inconsistently and prefers clay or indoor surfaces whenever possible. There are questions about his form at the season’s start, especially after a strong outing in Auckland but preceded by a -7 loss to Rinky Hijikata. It’s doubtful that with that background, Barrer should be favored at 2.4 against Echeverri: the Argentine gives his all in every match, especially at a Slam.
Molchan — Wawrinka
Alex Molchan grew tired of sticking to challengers and spent last season climbing the rankings, reaching No. 54. Riding that wave and backed by strong play, the Slovak aimed for more progress by hiring Marian Vajda (formerly Novak Djokovic’s coach) to his team. Now, this duo frequently discusses Molchan’s ambitions to break into the top ranks in interviews. Looking at 2022, he has all the makings: beating Hurkacz on grass, taking down Coric, or pushing Alcaraz to a tiebreak. His aspirations align with his results. However, in 2023, he’s lost both his matches so far, falling to Djer and Ali, but those should be viewed as warm-up games ahead of the Australian Open. His first-round opponent is tricky but not so much that Molchan should be at 4.7 odds. Yes, Stan Wawrinka is always dangerous, but he’s not getting any younger. If Molchan can impose his game from the start, the favorite in the lines might shift after the first set. Even if not, he can wear Wawrinka down with superior fitness. After all, Stan is 38, and five-set formats have been tough for him in recent years.
