On Sunday, December 18, we’ll all bid farewell to the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar together. At 18:00 Moscow time, the tournament’s final match will be played, featuring Argentina against France. Bookmakers are struggling to identify a favorite, but we’ll try to determine who might come out on top or look for other interesting betting opportunities.
Pre-match Breakdown
Argentina’s national team was initially seen as one of the favorites. No matter how you look at it, they have Messi, which makes any team a contender in any tournament. Overall, the Argentine squad is quite experienced, so for many players, this is likely their last chance to win a trophy, including for Lionel himself. It’s unlikely he’ll play in the next World Cup at 39. However, despite the high expectations for Argentina, they had a disastrous start, delivering what was probably the biggest upset of the tournament. Yes, we’re talking about that unfortunate group stage opener against Saudi Arabia (1:2), where some bookmakers offered odds of 30+ for the Saudis. But this is still Argentina, who regrouped and reached the semifinals. Interestingly, the EA Sports simulation predicted Argentina as the eventual winner, and that simulation has been accurate in 2018, 2014, and 2010.
France is the defending world champion, making them a prime favorite by default. Their path got easier after Croatia knocked out Brazil in the knockout round. For a long time, Brazil was seen as the top favorite, but now it’s all about France. Looking at the team objectively, Mbappé and company are a solid squad capable of beating any opponent. So far, France has only one loss, against Tunisia in the group stage. By then, they had already secured their spot in the knockout rounds, so they fielded a backup lineup. Even the backups performed decently but still lost. The only tough match in the knockout stage was the semifinal against England, which they won with great difficulty. That was arguably one of France’s weakest performances at the World Cup. Did they run out of steam? Were they unprepared? Was it a fluke or a trend? The match against Morocco showed that France is still in form…
Argentina
The Argentine team had a terrible start at the World Cup, losing to Saudi Arabia 1:2, which became the loudest sensation of the tournament and will likely remain so. But later, the team rallied and won twice with the same 2:0 score, beating Mexico and Poland. Even Lionel Messi’s missed penalty didn’t stop them from defeating Poland.
In the round of 16, Argentina faced a mid-tier Australia. The South American side scored twice and controlled the game but conceded late, making many fans nervous. Despite their overall dominance, the win felt shaky, with a tense finish.
In the quarterfinals, the Netherlands stood in Argentina’s way, and it seemed they might breeze through. True to form, Argentina scored two goals and looked comfortable. But then, they conceded in stoppage time, with 10 minutes added to the second half, and on the 90+11th minute, the Netherlands equalized. Yes, Argentina played more dynamically, attacked more brightly, and dominated the two extra periods from a position of strength, but it ended 2:2, going to penalties. The goalkeeper was outstanding, securing their spot in the semifinals.
Odds for Argentina’s win are 2.83.
And in the semifinal against Croatia, it was mostly a one-sided affair, like a highway with traffic in one direction—Croatia was outclassed and essentially gave up early, with no real way to challenge their stronger opponents.
France
So, what do we know about this team? It’s a mix of experience and youth. There are bold young players and veterans like Griezmann and Giroud, who have shone in Qatar. The first leads the tournament in key passes, and the second broke the legendary Thierry Henry’s record for goals with the French national team. Overall, it’s a powerhouse squad, no doubt about it.
The team secured their group stage advancement in the first two matches, beating Australia 4:1 and Denmark 2:1. Against Denmark, the winning goal came late on the 86th minute, but they got the job done. The match against Poland wasn’t easy either; they won 3:1, but until the 74th minute, they only led by one goal. On the pitch, it didn’t look like they were vastly superior.
This was confirmed in their next game against England, which France won 2:1. Sure, England’s only goal came from a penalty, and we all remember Harry Kane’s second penalty that sailed over the bar. Yes, England didn’t score from open play, but let’s be honest—they deserved to advance more. France looked dismal, partly because their wing attackers didn’t track back defensively. Meanwhile, England controlled the ball and created some good chances. Overtime wasn’t far off when Rashford took a free kick from about 20 meters in added time. In short, France played poorly but moved on.
Odds for France’s win are 2.83.
The match against Morocco was also tough on the field. The African team fought tooth and nail for every ball, but an early goal conceded prevented them from playing their usual defensive style. Despite Morocco attacking frequently and dangerously, they lost 0:2. Notably, this was the first game for France where they kept a clean sheet.
The takeaways from all this are straightforward: France has conceded in every match of the tournament except against Morocco and hasn’t played like true champions. This isn’t the France that dominated without question in the final against Croatia. No, this is a different France, scraping through rounds with difficulties. Ahead of them is a tough Argentina side, which will be hard to crack.
Prediction for the Match
Bookmakers are hesitant to pick a favorite, and that’s justified. The bets on the 1X2 market will likely be split evenly between the two teams. Guessing who will win is like flipping a coin—it’s about luck. In my humble opinion, Argentina looks a bit more engaging than France.
As for other markets, the over total stands out first. Argentina knows how to score and loves to, and France does too. Neither team has a rock-solid defense. Of course, the final will add some caution to the game since the stakes are high, with the world championship trophy on the line. However, who could predict a scoreless draw? Or that the match will be decided by a single goal? I don’t believe it, and I think we’ll see at least two goals. Given the odds for over 2, I consider it a must-bet.
Prediction: Over 2 total with odds of 1.80.
