In the traditionally hot Melbourne, tennis players are deciding who will advance to the second week of the Grand Slam…

Bautista Agut — Fritz

Starting from 2016, Roberto Bautista Agut has won 5 head-to-head matches against Taylor Fritz, losing only once — at the pre-Garros tournament in Lyon. The encounters happened twice on hard courts, twice on clay, and once on grass; so there’s no way to criticize the Spaniard for struggling against the usually sharp-serving Taylor. Reaching the third round of the Australian Open, Bautista Agut has already knocked out the always resilient Stefano Travaglia (3:1) and the tricky Philipp Kohlschreiber (3:0) for him, and now he’s stepping up to face the American likely at his peak form and in high spirits. This season, the Spaniard has a 6/1 record on hard courts, with his only loss to the fired-up Felix Auger-Aliassime in the ATP Cup final, where the first set alone lasted about 85 minutes. Taylor Fritz, despite his 4/1 record, hasn’t stood out in memorable matches: he beat the clear challenger Marterer and the out-of-form Frances Tiafoe on the AO courts. The American has met his norm (reaching r3), and considering his playing style, along with Bautista Agut’s affinity for the Melbourne courts, it’s logical to expect the Spaniard to go further. Bookmakers, including Pinnacle, are offering generous odds of 1.92 on Agut, which is worth taking.

Evans — Auger-Aliassime

Last season, at the then-new Murray River Open, Daniel Evans managed to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in two sets in the final. That win largely paved the way for the Brit’s rise and consolidation in the rankings, but by the time of this Australian Open, the situation has changed completely. Auger-Aliassime arrives as the ATP Cup winner, and knowing his emotional style, this boosts his confidence, making his game sharper and more relaxed. Felix finished last season with a 19/10 record on hard courts (Evans at 12/13), and match by match, Auger-Aliassime is increasingly looking like a top player, as many predicted when he became the youngest challenger title holder. Here at AO 2022, Felix has already warmed up well against the talented Finn Emil Ruusuvuori in a five-setter and advanced past the gritty Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, dropping just one set. As for Evans, he faced a faded David Goffin in the first round and didn’t even have to play in the second as Arthur Rinderknech withdrew. With that background, the Brit lacks some match practice, while Felix is in rhythm and ready. So, the most logical outcome in this match is a revenge, with appealing odds around 1.92.

De Minaur — Andujar

If there’s any place to hunt for an upset in the third round of the Australian Open, it’s in this exciting Spanish-Australian showdown. Pablo Andujar, known for his full commitment against favorites of all calibers (hello, Roger Federer), will test Alex de Minaur, who thrives on his home courts. The players, aside from a friendly match in October 2020, have two head-to-head encounters, both on clay, resulting in a tie. It might seem Andujar doesn’t favor outdoor hard courts much, but for this player, it’s more about how he performs in major tournaments with strong fields. Last season, he had a 3:2 win over Dominic Thiem at Roland Garros (both seeded), and a five-set victory over Pierre-Hugues Herbert at Wimbledon (both in the fifth). So, Andujar is always a perfect candidate for creating upsets. As for his hard court skills, at last year’s US Open, he beat Kukushkin and Kohlschreiber, so it’s unwise to write him off on hard courts here. De Minaur has oddly gotten an easy draw to r3, facing an unprepared Lorenzo Musetti and challenger Kamil Majchrzak, so it’s surprising they’re quoting him at 1.07 in what is essentially his first real test. Andujar at 10 is a great pick for fans of unexpected twists in tennis.

O’Connell — Cressy

Australian Christopher O’Connell put in a solid effort in the previous round at AO, defeating Argentine Diego Sebastian Schwartzman without dropping a set, which is rare against him in Grand Slams. Now he’s into r3, and what does the tennis community think? For some inexplicable reason, they consider American Maxime Cressy the favorite against Christopher, which is at least questionable. Cressy is known for his powerful serve and trying to end points in 2-3 shots, but that’s unlikely to work against O’Connell, who excels in defense and counterattacks. Moreover, the Australian has a strong record on outdoor hard courts, with a career balance of 125/86. Cressy advanced here by beating the aging John Isner (3:2) and the less skilled Tomas Machac, but that might not be enough in a match where O’Connell has the crowd, the skill, and the drive. If Christopher can force errors from his opponent (as he did with Schwartzman), Cressy might not get more than a hard-fought set, so taking O’Connell at 2.52 is a solid option.