In the final 34th round match of the German Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund will host Bayer. The hosts are still fighting for medals, while the guests have already completed all their tournament objectives. Let’s figure out what to bet on in this match.
Tournament Standings
From the perspective of next season’s prospects, both teams have achieved their goals. Borussia Dortmund qualified for the Champions League, and Bayer secured a spot in the second-most important European competition. Neither team will move from their current positions, so we need to look for other sources of motivation.
As an additional motivator, we can note Borussia Dortmund’s desire to hold onto third place. The team currently has the same points as Wolfsburg but edges them out on tiebreakers. For the hosts, this match likely means more than it does for the visitors.
Borussia Dortmund
The team had a solid season, though they finished far behind Bayern Munich. It seemed with Haaland’s arrival, the «Bees» could challenge the «Red Machine,» but that didn’t happen. Finishing outside the top three is unacceptable for Borussia.
Overall, the yellow-and-blacks have won fans with their exciting and dynamic play. In 33 matches, the team scored 72 goals and conceded 45. The average total per game is 3.54 goals.
The team has shown high scoring in recent matches:
- Borussia 5:0 Holstein Kiel.
- Borussia 3:2 RB Leipzig.
- RB Leipzig 1:4 Borussia.
- Mainz 1:3 Borussia.
As seen from the recent games, the «Bees» often play over 3.5 total goals and over 2.5 for their individual total.
Bayer
The season started strong for the «Lions,» with the team contending for medals and a Champions League spot, but they faded toward the end. Thanks to their early points haul, they finished sixth and earned a place in the Europa League.
In their last 15 matches across all competitions, Bayer won just 4 times, drew 5, and lost 6. That’s not a great record, especially after a powerful start.
The team remains inconsistent. They can score three goals against a nearby rival or fail to score against a team fighting relegation.
Recent matches:
- Bayer 1:1 Union.
- Werder 0:0 Bayer.
- Bayer 3:1 Eintracht.
- Bayern 2:0 Bayer.
Still, the «Lions» don’t like conceding much. In 33 Bundesliga matches, they let in only 36 goals. For comparison, Borussia conceded 45, Bayern 42, and Eintracht 52—all teams above Bayer in the table. Overall, the main issue for the team continues to be their attack.
Head-to-Head Matches
In the first round, Bayer came out on top at home with a 2:1 win. Shortly after that success, the team’s decline began.
An interesting trend is that home teams have won most of their recent head-to-heads. At least, that’s been the case in the last four games:
- 2019: Borussia 3:2 Bayer.
- 2019: Borussia 4:0 Bayer.
- 2020: Bayer 4:3 Borussia.
- 2021: Bayer 2:1 Borussia.
It’s notable that the teams always score at least three goals, often more than four.
Match Prediction
Based on their head-to-heads, the most sensible outcome is over 3 total goals. However, the odds for that are unappealing at just 1.40. It’s foolish to go with overall scoring at such low odds.
As for individual totals, backing Borussia over 2.5 is risky. The odds are 1.93, and remember, Bayer doesn’t like to concede many.
1.58 for a Borussia win isn’t very exciting, but it’s warmer. Let’s bump up the odds a bit and go with this option:
Prediction. Borussia win and over 1.5 total goals at 1.65
