The Australian Open of the 2023 season is starting, and it’s a pure delight to analyze the first-round draw. Who will surprise, who will disappoint? Who to watch? Bookmakers have made a few mistakes as usual and in some matches, they’re favoring the wrong player!
Otte — Shang
Oscar Otte started the season at the United Cup and is remembered for winning only one match. It might seem like that’s just how it goes, nothing particularly critical happened, but with a 1/2 balance and lack of proper match practice, he won’t catch much in the opening round of AO 2023. Primarily because he’s playing against Shang, who is not only a young talent but also fought his way into the main draw through a tough qualification, gaining form along the way. It might seem that scalps like Marozsan, Verdasco, and Piros aren’t indicative of current form, but you have to understand: the German lacks even that level of practice. Moreover, the Australian Open is a particularly unlucky Grand Slam for Oscar: 5 appearances and only one main draw entry when he qualified by ranking — otherwise, he didn’t pass qualifiers. Last season, he got lucky in the first round with a raw Tseng. This time, it’s completely different. Shang is hungry for wins and capable of causing problems not just on his serve. Otte might hold serve without issues for the first couple of sets, but then physical endurance will come to the fore, and the young Chinese player has the edge there. In 2022, Shang tested his strength on challengers, amassing a seasonal record of 40/24 (of which 17/8 on hard courts), and now he’s in good shape to claim his first main tour win. The German will fight, it’s not going to be an easy match, but Shang at 2.8 is an excellent pick for R1 of AO 2023.
Echeverry — Barrere
Thomas Martin Echeverry has burst into the ATP top-100 and settled comfortably at the 80th position. This allows him to enter the main draws of Grand Slam tournaments, and in between, he pads his ranking with familiar challengers. However, the Argentine tennis player manages to attend ATP 250 events and secure local wins there, without worrying about the surface underfoot. For example, in 2022, he beat Aslan Karatsev indoors, and indoor courts aren’t exactly suited to Echeverry’s game. Though he’s considered a pure clay-courter, he’s only 23 and has plenty of time to make his game more versatile, which is exactly what he’s doing now. For instance, he trained with his national team for the United Cup, performed well on hard courts, and then rushed to the Adelaide 2 qualifiers, where he didn’t drop a set to anyone. On top of that, Thomas Martin has a solid serve, which helps him beat less strong opponents. Not that Gregory Barrere can be called less strong, but the Frenchman is notable for the number of unforced errors he makes from match to match. Once, Barrere reached the second round of the Australian Open, but that achievement shouldn’t be overstated: his opponent was a futures-level player, Mohammed Safwat. Overall, Gregory plays on outdoor hard courts inconsistently and heads to clay or indoor whenever possible. There are many questions about his form at the start of the season, as even though he had a successful outing in Auckland, before that, he lost -7 to Rinky Hijikata. It’s doubtful that with such a background, Echeverry should be given 2.4: the Argentine gives his all in every match, especially at a Grand Slam.
Molchan — Wawrinka
Alex Molchan is tired of lingering on challengers and spent the entire previous season climbing the rankings. He succeeded quite well: reaching the 54th position. Riding that wave (and with quality play), the Slovak wanted even more progress and hired Marian Vajda (former coach of Novak Djokovic) to his coaching team. Now, this duo gives interviews at every opportunity about Molchan’s ambitions to break into the top. Looking at the 2022 season, all the prerequisites are there: Alex beats Hurkacz on grass, takes out Coric, or goes to a tiebreak with Alcaraz. In general, his ambitions align with his results. However, in the 2023 season, the Slovak has lost both of his matches, upset by Djer and Ali; but those games should be viewed as warm-up preparation for the Australian Open. His first-round opponent is problematic but not so much that Molchan should be quoted at 4.7… Yes, Stan Wawrinka is always dangerous, but he’s not getting any younger. If Alex manages to impose his game on the Swiss, then after the first set, the favorite in the line will change. And if not from the start, he can wear him down with better physical conditioning. After all, Stan is 38, and in recent years, the five-set format has been tough for him.
